Bettors Put Their Money on Clinton

SMITH BRAIN TRUST — Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is leading in opinion polls after her first debate against Republican nominee Donald Trump. Heading into Sunday’s second debate, Clinton’s momentum also appears to be increasing in the betting markets.

Clinical professor of finance David Kass at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business follows the money in gauging the U.S. presidential outcome. He says heading into the second debate, Clinton’s edge has been averaging about 2.5 percentage points according to several polls, but that margin is wider according to bettors. “PredictWise, a prediction market aggregator, shows that people with money on the line are betting that Clinton will win with a probability of 80 percent,” Kass says. “PaddyPower, a London-based betting parlor, is indicating that Clinton has a 73 percent probability of being elected, an increase from 63 percent prior to the first presidential debate.”

Betting on politics is mostly illegal in the United States, but online investors can put money on U.S. candidates in places like Ireland. “Prediction markets are more accurate than any pollster or pundit that I follow,” Kass said earlier this year. “People are betting to win. It’s pure price discovery by the market.” However, he says conventional polling still has value. “Pollsters are useful like stock market analysts," he says. "You need information."